Rent vs Buy: A Reprise

By Sheryl Smolkin

Last year when I wrote about the buy vs. rent dilemma which most of us have confronted at some stage of our life, the five questions I suggested that readers consider were:

  1. How big is your down payment?
  2. How much house can you afford?
  3. Is your job secure?
  4. What are your family plans?
  5. What if interest rates go up?

All of those things are still important, but in the last year dramatic changes in both the Saskatchewan and Alberta rental and housing markets due to the drop in the price of oil may influence your decision.

For example, a report released at the end of last year from the real estate company Re Max says house prices in Regina and Saskatoon have dipped compared to a year ago because there are more properties on the market.

In Saskatoon a recent flurry of construction activity “has created market conditions modestly favoring the buyer,” the report says. “Currently, there are four months of inventory on the market and inventory is expected to increase as more of these new builds come to market next year.” The study also notes that the average sale price for a home in Saskatoon was $361,000 last year. However, by December 2015 it was $354,000 — a two percent drop.

Moreover, the report found similar market conditions in Regina, where there has been a lot of new construction taking place. “High inventory kept Regina in a buyer’s market throughout 2015,” the report says. Prices also dipped in Regina, by about three percent compared to 2014. An average Regina home was $329,000 last year and that figure has now dropped down to $320,000. For 2016, Re Max predicts that in both cities average prices will likely remain the same as for the previous year.

Recently interviewed on Breakfast TV Calgary, blogger Bridget Eastgaard said, “Assuming house prices stay down as long as oil prices remain low and layoffs continue to happen [in Calgary] which is unfortunate, it will give you more time to save and invest so you can accumulate the down payment you need to get the house you want.”

With Saskatchewan experiencing a similar downturn, her advice will also resonate with savewithspp.com readers. “If you are uncertain about your own job security now is a good time to wait it out and see what happens in the next year,” Eastgaard said.

Fortunately, if you do opt to continue renting in the short or long-term, the Saskatoon Landlord Association says it’s a tenant’s market with vacancy rates doubling in the city over the last year. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the vacancy rate went from 3.4% to 6.5% from October 2014 to October 2015. Chandra Lockhart, executive officer with the landlord association attributes this glut in rental properties to the large number of new, unsold houses and condominiums that have been flipped into rentals.

That means renters have lots of leverage Eastgaard says. “You can pick and choose. You also have the bargaining chips to negotiate perks like parking spaces, utilities included or even ask for the first month rent free.”

So how do you decide?

If you have already saved a 10% or 15% down payment, it may be an ideal time to buy your first home or trade up. But if you are not quite ready, don’t be in a rush. Lots of great rental stock means you can find a nice place to live and you don’t have to worry that you will be priced out of the market in the immediate future.

 

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