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What if the boomer retirement wave is a trickle, rather than a tidal wave?
We all seem to feel pretty certain that any time now, an unprecedented wave of boomer retirements (some call it the silver tsunami) will wash ashore, overloading the system and causing all kinds of problems.
Financial author and MacDonald-Laurier Institute fellow Linda Nazareth isn’t so sure.
Writing in the Globe and Mail, she likens concerns about this upcoming boomer retirement wave to “almost an urban legend.”
She says many speculate that “shortages of workers will be the bane of every industry,” and “younger workers will finally (finally!!) get to experience what it’s like to be in a seller’s market. After all, every day that huge generation gets older they are collectively getting a day closer to the golf course and out of the office.”
However, there may be a few facts getting in the way of this great story, she writes. A recent study by the OECD, Nazareth notes, suggests “there are factors at play that will keep older workers in the workforce and that will go a long way toward offsetting the impact of population aging in most developed countries, including Canada.”
The OECD research noted, she writes, that many countries, including Canada, have done away with mandatory retirement ages. Getting rid of those old rules – here it used to be retirement by age 65 – led to a “10.9 percentage point increase in the labour force participation rate… of those between 55 and 74 between 2002 and 2019,” she explains.
The OECD, Nazareth explains, chalks up the increase in older workers to “rising life expectancy,” the fact that people are living (and thus working) longer, and “educational attainment,” the idea that better-educated workers can stay on the job longer.
So instead of a “silver tsunami,” Nazareth says the OECD data suggests that the number of older people in the workforce should actually begin to increase “by 3.4 percentage points through 2030 for the median (OECD) country.” Japan will see a startling 11.5 per cent increase in older workers by 2030, at the lower end, Germany will see a fall of 2.5 per cent in the same timeframe. Canada should see the older worker participation rate dip by 1.7 per cent by 2030.
Nazareth concludes from the OECD data that the long-expected explosion of boomer retirements is being delayed by “longer lifespans… and higher education levels.” Another factor, she explains, is that while older folks may be working longer, they may tend to be doing so “on contracts or in part-time jobs.” Nonetheless, she concludes, “the rush to the golf greens may be a little slower than expected.”
These conclusions sure seem to line up with what those of us of a certain age – let’s say 60 – are seeing. Those of us with good workplace pensions are leaving or planning to leave the workplace, those without intend to keep working. Many are working or consulting into their 70s.
One great way to ease the transition from working to not working is to augment any workplace pension you may receive with personal savings. A great place to park your hard-earned retirement dollars is the Saskatchewan Pension Plan, which offers professional, low-cost investing, an enviable track record of growth, and best of all, many options at retirement to turn your savings into lifetime income. Be sure to click on over to check them out!
|Written by Martin Biefer
|Martin Biefer is Senior Pension Writer at Avery & Kerr Communications in Nepean, Ontario. A veteran reporter, editor and pension communicator, he’s now a freelancer. Interests include golf, line dancing, classic rock, and darts. You can follow him on Twitter – his handle is @AveryKerr22|